Revolution in Crowdsourcing is Already Here
There were three breakthrough openings in idea creation last year. The first one – in the beginning of the 2017, and the last one – in December. We kept passion and in the early 2018 we introduce you the finals of the research for now.
This great news were brought to Russia by Sergey Karelov.
Part 1: Revolution in Crowdsourcing is Already Here
Source: Better wisdom from crowds, by Peter Dizikes
“In situations where there is enough information in the crowd to determine the correct answer to a question, that answer will be the one [that] most outperforms expectations,” says Drazen Prelec, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management as well as the Department of Economics and the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences.
Researchers found that the “surprisingly popular” algorithm reduced errors by 21.3 percent compared to simple majority votes, and by 24.2 percent compared to basic confidence-weighted votes (where people express how confident they are in their answers). And it reduced errors by 22.2 percent compared to another kind of confidence-weighted votes, those taking the answers with the highest average confidence levels.
The paper, “A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem,” was published in Nature. The authors are Prelec; John McCoy, a doctoral student in the MIT Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences; and H. Sebastian Seung, a professor of neuroscience and computer science at Princeton University and a former MIT faculty member. Prelec and McCoy are also researchers in the MIT Neuroeconomics Laboratory, where Prelec is the principal investigator.
The “surprisingly popular” principle is not simply derived from the wisdom of crowds. Instead, it uses the knowledge of a well-informed subgroup of people within the larger crowd as a diagnostically powerful tool that points to the right answer.
“A lot of crowd wisdom weights people equally,” McCoy explains. “But some people have more specialized knowledge.” And those people — if they have both correct information and a correct sense of public perception — make a big difference.
“The argument in this paper, in a very rough sense, is that people who expect to be in the minority deserve some extra attention,” Prelec says.